目錄
序
前言
第1章緒論1
1.1背景與意義4
1.1.1研究背景4
1.1.2研究目的和意義7
1.2研究前沿與進(jìn)展10
1.2.1草原火行為研究進(jìn)展及評述11
1.2.2草原火險研究進(jìn)展及評述14
1.2.3草原火災(zāi)災(zāi)情評價研究進(jìn)展及評述19
1.2.4草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險研究進(jìn)展及評述20
1.2.5草原火災(zāi)模擬進(jìn)展及評述24
1.3草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價的系統(tǒng)理論分析研究27
1.3.1草原火災(zāi)相關(guān)的概念分析28
1.3.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價的理論基礎(chǔ)29
1.3.3草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性分析30
1.4本書的內(nèi)容與框架32
1.4.1主要研究內(nèi)容32
1.4.2本研究中存在的關(guān)鍵問題35
1.4.3技術(shù)路線36
第2章我國北方草原地表可燃物時空演變39
2.1我國北方草原基礎(chǔ)地理概況40
2.1.1地理位置與行政區(qū)劃40
2.1.2自然地理環(huán)境42
2.1.3社會經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境43
2.2基于植被指數(shù)的草原可燃物時空演變分析44
2.2.1常用的植被指數(shù)44
2.2.2基于植被指數(shù)的草原生物量計算46
2.2.3基于植被指數(shù)的草原可燃物量計算49
第3章我國北方草原火災(zāi)時空規(guī)律分析543.1研究區(qū)草原火災(zāi)歷史概況54
3.1.1研究區(qū)草原火災(zāi)防火概況54
3.1.2研究區(qū)防火減災(zāi)能力概況55
3.2我國北方草原火災(zāi)時空格局分析56
3.2.1起火原因調(diào)查分析58
3.2.2草原火災(zāi)的分布規(guī)律61
3.3我國北方重大草原火災(zāi)時間序列預(yù)測64
3.3.1基于非線性理論的草原火災(zāi)時間序列預(yù)測64
3.3.2灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測法65
3.3.3馬爾可夫預(yù)測67
3.3.4灰色馬爾可夫預(yù)測68
3.4我國北方草原火災(zāi)災(zāi)損規(guī)律的模糊判別分析69
3.4.1基于信息擴(kuò)散理論的草原火災(zāi)發(fā)生概率分析70
3.4.2基于信息矩陣的草原火災(zāi)次數(shù)與損失模糊關(guān)系分析73
第4章我國北方草原火行為特征分析78
4.1天氣條件對草原火災(zāi)的影響分析78
4.1.1水分條件對草原火災(zāi)的影響79
4.1.2溫度對草原火災(zāi)的影響81
4.1.3風(fēng)對草原火災(zāi)的影響84
4.1.4干旱對草原火災(zāi)的影響85
4.2可燃物特征對草原火災(zāi)的影響分析87
4.2.1可燃物含水率對起火影響分析87
4.2.2可燃物特征與火行為參數(shù)關(guān)系89
4.2.3可燃物的火強(qiáng)度91
4.3不同火環(huán)境下的火行為分析92
4.3.1天氣條件對草原火災(zāi)傳播速度影響分析93
4.3.2地形對草原火傳播速度影響分析93
4.3.3綜合因素影響下的草原火蔓延速度分析93
第5章基于火行為分析的草原火災(zāi)蔓延模擬99
5.1基于元胞自動機(jī)的草原火災(zāi)蔓延模擬99
5.1.1格網(wǎng)定義101
5.1.2格網(wǎng)狀態(tài)101
5.1.3演化規(guī)則101
5.1.4風(fēng)向和風(fēng)速的影響103
5.1.5草原火災(zāi)擴(kuò)散概率104
5.1.6蔓延時間的確定104
5.1.7蔓延模擬流程105
5.2案例研究106
5.2.1研究區(qū)地理背景106
5.2.2草原火災(zāi)情境還原108
5.2.3草原火災(zāi)蔓延場景模擬可視化108
5.3草原火災(zāi)動態(tài)蔓延結(jié)果驗(yàn)證109
第6章基于草地類型的草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價研究112
6.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險的基本理論112
6.1.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險形成機(jī)理112
6.1.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價框架115
6.2研究區(qū)概況與數(shù)據(jù)來源115
6.2.1研究區(qū)概況115
6.2.2數(shù)據(jù)來源與處理116
6.3草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系117
6.3.1草原火災(zāi)危險性分析117
6.3.2草原火災(zāi)暴露性分析122
6.3.3草原火災(zāi)脆弱性分析122
6.3.4草原火災(zāi)管理能力分析122
6.3.5草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系122
6.3.6草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險指標(biāo)權(quán)重確定123
6.4我國北方草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險綜合評價124
6.4.1我國北方草原火災(zāi)危險性評價125
6.4.2我國北方草原火災(zāi)暴露性評價125
6.4.3我國北方草原火災(zāi)脆弱性評價127
6.4.4我國北方草原火災(zāi)管理能力評價127
6.4.5我國北方草原火災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果128
6.5基于火行為模擬的草原火災(zāi)動態(tài)風(fēng)險評價131
6.5.1草原火災(zāi)動態(tài)風(fēng)險評價概念框架131
6.5.2草原火災(zāi)動態(tài)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系131
6.5.3草原火災(zāi)動態(tài)風(fēng)險評價模型133
6.6草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果的驗(yàn)證138
6.6.1靜態(tài)風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果的驗(yàn)證138
6.6.2動態(tài)風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果的驗(yàn)證139
6.6.3敏感性分析141
6.6.4風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果的不確定性分析146
第7章草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價在火災(zāi)管理中的應(yīng)用研究147
7.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價應(yīng)用研究147
7.1.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理過程147
7.1.2靜態(tài)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價的應(yīng)用148
7.1.3動態(tài)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價的應(yīng)用150
7.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價與動態(tài)模擬耦合研究150
7.2.1靜態(tài)與動態(tài)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價的耦合研究150
7.2.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價與草原火災(zāi)蔓延耦合研究151
第8章結(jié)論與展望153
8.1取得結(jié)論153
8.2展望和未來要開展的工作154
8.2.1下一步的研究重點(diǎn)154
8.2.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價應(yīng)用研究155
8.2.3草原火災(zāi)生態(tài)影響評價155
參考文獻(xiàn)156
彩圖
ContentsPreliminaryForewordChapter1Introduction1
1.1Backgroundandsignificance4
1.1.1Background4
1.1.2Purposeandsignificance7
1.2Frontierandprogress10
1.2.1Progressandreviewofgrasslandfirebehavior11
1.2.2Progressandreviewofgrasslandfiredanger14
1.2.3Progressandreviewofgrasslandfirelossesassessment19
1.2.4Progressandreviewofgrasslandfireriskassessment20
1.2.5Progressandreviewofgrasslandfiresimulation24
1.3Systemtheoryanalysisofgrasslandfireriskassessment27
1.3.1Conceptanalysisofgrasslandfire28
1.3.2Theoreticalbasisofgrasslandfireriskassessment29
1.3.3Complexityanalysisofgrasslandfirerisksystem30
1.4Contentsandframework32
1.4.1Contents32
1.4.2Keyproblems35
1.4.3Techniqueflow36
Chapter2TemporalandspatialevolutionofthesurfacefuelinthenortherngrasslandofCinah39
2.1GeneralsituationofgrasslandinnorthernCinah40
2.1.1Locationandadministrativedivision40
2.1.2Naturalgeographicalenvironment42
2.1.3Socialandeconomicenvironment43
2.2Analysisoftemporalandspatialevolutionofthesurfacefuelbasedonvegetationindex44
2.2.1Severalvegetationindex44
2.2.2Calculationofgrasslandbiomassbasedonvegetationindex46
2.2.3Calculationofthesurfacefuelquantityofgrasslandbasedonvegetationindex49
Chapter3TemporalandspatialfeaturesofgrasslandfiresinnorthernCinah54
3.1Overviewofgrasslandfirehistoryinthestudyarea54
3.1.1Overviewofgrasslandfireinthestudyarea54
3.1.2Overviewoffiredisasterreductionabilityinthestudyarea55
3.2TemporalandspatialsituationofgrasslandfiresinnorthernCinah56
3.2.1Investigationandanalysisofthecauseofthefire58
3.2.2Distributionfeaturesofgrasslandfire61
3.3TimeseriesforecastingofseveregrasslandfireinnorthernCinah64
3.3.1Timeseriesforecastingofgrasslandfirebasedonnonlineartheory64
3.3.2Greysystemforecastmethod65
3.3.3Markovforecastmethod67
3.3.4GreyMarkovFrecastinogmethod68
3.4FuzzyanalysisoffiredisasterdamagesinnorthernCinah69
3.4.1Analysisofgrasslandfireoccurrenceprobabilitybasedoninformationdiffusiontheory70
3.4.2Fuzzyrelationshipanalysisofthenumberandlossofgrasslandfirebasedoninformationmatrix73
Chapter4CharacteristicanalysisofgrasslandfirebehaviorinnorthernCinah78
4.1Analysisoftheinfluenceofweatherconditionsongrasslandfire78
4.1.1Effectofhumidityconditionongrasslandfire79
4.1.2Effectoftemperatureongrasslandfire81
4.1.3Effectofwindongrasslandfire84
4.1.4Effectofdroughtongrasslandfire85
4.2Analysisoftheeffectoffuelcharacteristicsongrasslandfire87
4.2.1Analysisontheinfluenceofmoisturecontentoffuelonfire87
4.2.2Relationshipbetweenfuelcharacteristicsandfirebehaviorparameters89
4.2.3Fireintensityofsurfacefuel914.3Analysisoffirebehaviorunderdifferentfireconditions92
4.3.1Analysisoftheinfluenceofweatherconditionsonthepropagationspeedofgrasslandfire93
4.3.2Analysisoftheeffectoftopographyonthepropagationvelocityofgrasslandfire93
4.3.3Analysisofgrasslandfirespreadrateundertheinfluenceofsyntheticfactors93
Chapter5Grasslandfirespreadingsimulationbasedonfirebehavioranalysis99
5.1SimulationofgrasslandfirespreadbasedontheCllulareautomaton99
5.1.1Thedefinitionofgrid101
5.1.2Thestateofgrid101
5.1.3Evolutionrule101
5.1.4Theinfluenceofwinddirectionandspeed103
5.1.5Grasslandfirespreadprobability104
5.1.6Determinationofspreadingtime104
5.1.7Theprocessofgrasslandfirespreadingsimulation105
5.2Casestudy106
5.2.1Geographicalbackgroundofthestudyarea106
5.2.2Grasslandfirescenarioreproduce108
5.2.3Thesimulationvisualizationofgrasslandfirespreadingscene108
5.3Theresultverificationofgrasslandfiredynamicspreading109
Chapter6Studyonfireriskassessmentofgrasslandbasedongrasslandtypes112
6.1Basictheoryofgrasslandfirerisk112
6.1.1Theformationmechanismofgrasslandfirerisk112
6.1.2Theassessmentframeworkgrasslandfirerisk115
6.2Thestudyareaanddatasources115
6.2.1Overviewofstudyarea115
6.2.2Datasourcesandprocessing116
6.3Theindexsystemofgrasslandfireriskassessment117
6.3.1Grasslandfirehazardanalysis117
6.3.2Grasslandfireexposureanalysis122
6.3.3Grasslandfirevulnerabilityanalysis122
6.3.4Grasslandfireriskassessmentindexsystem122
6.3.5Theindexsystemofgrasslandfireriskassessment122
6.3.6Grasslandfireriskindexweightdetermination123
6.4ThecomprehensiveassessmentofgrasslandfireriskinthenorthofChina124
6.4.1AssessmentofhazardofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah125
6.4.2AssessmentofexposureofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah125
6.4.3AssessmentofvulnerabilityofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah127
6.4.4AssessmentofmanagementablilityofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah127
6.4.5TheresultsofcomprehensiveassessmentofgrasslandfireriskinthenorthofCinah128
6.5Dynamicriskassessmentofgrasslandfirebasedonfirebehaviorsimulation131
6.5.1Theconceptualframeworkfordynamicriskassessmentofgrasslandfire131
6.5.2Grasslandfireriskassessmentindexsystem131
6.5.3Grasslandfireriskassessmentmodel133
6.6Theverificationofgrasslandfireriskassessmentresults138
6.6.1Theverificationofstaticriskassessmentresults138
6.6.2Theverificationofdynamicriskassessmentresults139
6.6.3Sensitivityanalysis141
6.6.4Uncertaintyanalysisofriskassessmentresults146
Chapter7Applicationofgrasslandfireriskassessmentinfiremanagement147
7.1Applicationstudyofgrasslandfireriskassessment147
7.1.1Grasslandfireriskmanagementprocess147
7.1.2Applicationofstaticgrasslandfireriskassessment148
7.1.3Applicationofdynamicgrasslandfireriskassessment150
7.2Thestudyonthecouplingofdynamicsimulationandriskassessmentofgrasslandfire150
7.2.1Thestudyonthecouplingofstaticanddynamicgrasslandfireriskassessment150
7.2.2Thestudyonthefireriskassessmentofgrasslandandgrasslandfirespread151
Chapter8Conclusionandprospect1538.1Results153
8.2Theprospectandfuturework154
8.2.1Thenextresearchfocus154
8.2.2Applicationstudyofgrasslandfireriskassessment155
8.2.3Theassessmentofgrasslandfireecology155
References156
Colorpictures